SNIPEF's State of Trade Survey for the first quarter of 2026 points to steady activity tempered by growing caution. Work volumes have held up, payment performance is broadly consistent and product availability remains manageable. However, order books are more finely balanced, margins are under pressure and confidence has weakened, particularly regarding the wider UK economy.

Current trading was largely stable: 32% of firms were busier than expected, 39% were in line with expectations and 29% reported quieter conditions, indicating demand persists but is unevenly distributed across the sector.

The outlook for future work is mixed. Forward order books were above expectations for 23% of respondents, as expected for 39% and lower than expected for 39%, suggesting an active but less certain pipeline than in previous periods.

-- Advertisement --

Rising input costs remain the dominant headwind, with 93% of businesses reporting increased material and product costs. Supply issues are less acute: 90% rated product availability as good or average, indicating affordability rather than access is the primary constraint.

Sentiment has softened. Only 28% of firms are confident or very confident about the year ahead for the profession. Confidence in the UK economy is markedly weaker, with just 7% confident and 76% pessimistic or very pessimistic.

Hiring intentions remain subdued. Only 19% expect to increase staffing levels and 15% are likely to recruit an apprentice. Skills availability is tight, with 68% reporting low availability of qualified plumbing and heating professionals.

Overall, the profession remains active and resilient, but thinner margins, reduced financial headroom and constrained capacity are limiting ambitions for growth. The challenge is less about immediate demand and more about the sector's ability to expand sustainably in the months ahead.