Scotland can hit its target of 50% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 and keep exporting electricity to England and Northern Ireland, according to the first major independent study of the Scottish Government's renewable energy targets.

This is likely to mean a 500% increase in the numbers of wind farms, with Scotland needing around 450 MW of new wind power - more than twice the size of the country's biggest operational wind farm - every year until 2020.

But the report, published by the Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI), also states that new nuclear power should be 'considered as a potential part of the longer term generation base in Scotland' due to questions about how we replace existing power plants with low carbon alternatives beyond 2020.

The other main findings of the report, produced by independent energy research consultancy Wood Mackenzie, are that:

• Onshore wind will provide more than 80 per cent of the increase in renewable electricity by 2020, with marine, biomass and hydro expanding at a tenth of the rate of new wind.
• Scotland needs £10bn of investment in new electricity generation between now and 2020.
• Demand for electricity will rise by 10% in the same time frame - despite continued attempts to encourage greater energy efficiency.
• Scotland's electricity sector will produce a third less carbon dioxide.

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However, the report still argues that new nuclear should be 'considered as a potential part of the longer term generation base in Scotland': "With Torness and other power stations possibly being decommissioned after 2020, there are still questions about how we provide the baseload Scotland needs in the longer term. Carbon capture and clean coal may be available at that time, but we also believe that new nuclear should still be considered as an option to meet our longer term energy needs."

The also report highlights increasing energy use despite attempts to drive down consumption, but does suggest a significant cut in CO2 emissions.

The report also looks at the potential contribution of carbon capture to Scottish electricity markets: "With the booming global demand for sustainable energy, there is undoubtedly a huge commercial prize for the first commercial application of this technology,” concluded Iain Duff.

(GK/JM)