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11/02/2016

Scottish Housing Supply Falls Short Of Demand

New research has revealed Scotland still has a long way to go before enough homes are built for its growing population.

A new report from JLL, 'Rising to the Challenge', warns the country does not have enough homes to either meet current demand or the Scottish Government's recommended targets for homes.

Data shows in the year to Q2 2015, 15,260 new homes were completed, well short of both the five-year average to 2007/8 of 21,170 homes a year.

The figure also falls further behind the Government's current recommended target of 36,000 homes a year.

Overall, the number of households in Scotland is expected to rise by around 74,000 in the next fives years, with 15,100 in Edinburgh and a further 10,400 in Glasgow.

However, including the Scottish Government's latest £195 million funding boost, JLL said that the forecasted household increase will create huge demand which far outstrips supply.

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Jason Hogg, Director of JLL's Residential team in Scotland, said: "2016 will be a year of challenging questions rather than unbridled forward momentum. And there are several questions on a variety of residential issues which need addressing.

"The greatest challenge is how the housebuilding industry and the Scottish Government will move towards building the greater volume of homes the country needs. Development activity is better than three to four years ago but still nowhere near the 23,000 homes a year target. The Scottish Government is allocating funds to assist, but we believe closer collaboration with the industry, more innovative and more directly beneficial initiatives as well as higher funding need to be considered if the housing shortfall is to be addressed.

"2016 will also bring into play legislation that will rebalance the private landlord and tenant relationships. However, we will have to wait and see whether there are any wider market implications or whether any local authorities will use their rent cap powers."

It is predicted that while development activity rises, this will lead to greater competition and pressure between demand and available supply in both the sales and the lettings markets in Edinburgh and Glasgow.

JLL also predicts that the next few years will finally see the start of Build to Rent or Private Rented Community (PRC) development in Scottish cities.

(LM/MH)

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